Myanmar after Military Coup Part 1 (軍事クーデター後のミャンマー①)

After the military coup of 1st February 2021, Myanmar fell into a political crisis and significant repercussions rapidly on declining social security and deteriorating economic situations. Myanmar remain dire and inflicted deep scars on the country's economy, pushing nearly half of the population into poverty and erasing years of progress. With public services failing, humanitarian needs soaring and the regime facing mounting pressure, Myanmar's future hinges on a transition to a federal democracy and an end to military rule.

What are Current main actions of military on citizens?

The military junta in Myanmar is currently escalating its violent crackdown and indiscriminate attacks against civilians across the country in a desperate attempt to cling to power amid growing armed resistance. Current main actions being taken by the military junta are:

1. Imposing Military Conscription: In February 2024, the junta issued an order to enforce the 2010 People's Military Service Law, allowing for mandatory military conscription of men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27. The junta aims to conscript 5,000 individuals per month starting April 2024 to replenish its depleted ranks due to troop losses and defections. (*1)That order widespread fear among Myanmar's youth and one of the significant reasons that force them leave from the country and their family.

2. Intensifying Indiscriminate Airstrikes: The military has conducted numerous indiscriminate airstrikes on civilian areas, villages, displaced persons camps, schools and other civilian infrastructure across Myanmar. One of the deadliest attacks was in April 2023 when at least 168 civilians were killed in an airstrike on an anti-coup event in Sagaing region. (*2)Moreover, in March 2024, junta airstrikes destroying schools in the Karen National Union (KNU) area of Bilin Township, and in recently several indiscriminate airstrikes and attacked on civilian of Kayin and Mon States such as Myawaddy, Damatha, etc. Ethnic armed groups like KNU, the Arakan Army and local PDFs have intensified fighting against the junta, leading to civilian casualties from indiscriminate shelling and airstrikes.(*3)

3. Escalating Brutal Tactics: The junta forces have escalated brutal tactics like massacres, burnings, beheadings and arbitrary killings of civilians across Myanmar. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), which aggregates conflict data from open-source material, at least 50,000 people have been killed in Myanmar since the launch of the military’s attempted coup in 2021, including at least 8,000 civilians and also including about 578 children, in over 200 massacres committed by junta troops since the 2021 coup. Cases of beheadings have been documented by rights groups. (*4)The military has killed civilians through its brutal crackdown on dissent and over 26,560 people have been arrested on political grounds, with nearly 20,000 still detained as of April 2024, estimated by Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) many subjected to torture. At least nearly 3000 individuals, including over 100 of women, have died in military custody since the coup.

4. Blocking Humanitarian Aid: The military continues to block humanitarian aid access to many displaced populations across conflict zones. Over 2.7 million people remain displaced within Myanmar and 18.6 million people in need of aid, due to escalating conflict and the military’s blockades on humanitarian assistance as of early 2024. (*5)Arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings by the military have become widespread, amounting to potential crimes against humanity.

How Myanmar harmful by Economically and Socially as Military coup 

As of early 2024, Myanmar remains engulfed in a spiraling armed revolutionary conflict, a deepening humanitarian catastrophe, widespread human rights violations by the military junta, and an inadequate international response to resolve the crisis and support the democratic movement and country continues to suffer severe economic and social consequences.

Economic Impact

Myanmar's economy has been "permanently scarred" by the coup and ensuing conflict, according to the World Bank. The military coup had a devastating impact on the country's economy, leading to a severe contraction in GDP, soaring inflation and unemployment, a plummeting exchange rate, and a collapse in foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade and then rent-seeking behavior has increased due to discretionary policies. The key economic impact are: 

1. GDP Contraction: Myanmar's GDP contracted by a staggering 18% in 2021 due to the coup and ensuing conflict. The World Bank estimates it is unlikely Myanmar will reach pre-coup GDP levels until 2027 or 2028, leaving the economy "permanently scarred". Economy is expected to grow just 1 per cent in the year to March 2024, according to the World Bank report (Dec, 2023), describing a “broad-based slowdown” across its key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.

2. Soaring Inflation and Unemployment: Inflation spiked in the aftermath of the coup, consumer prices increased by 28.6 percent over the year to June 2023, with CPI inflation moderating only slightly from the peak of 35 percent recorded in December 2022, driven by a surge in food and transport prices on account of exchange rate depreciation, and disruptions in the local supply of agricultural products due to increased conflict, transport constraints, and trade restrictions. (*6)In April 2024, food price still surge by double digit more horrific in food prices. Nearly 40% of Myanmar's working-age population is currently unemployed as of early 2024. Almost half of households reported decreased incomes over the past year.

3. Currency Depreciation: The Myanmar kyat has lost around 30% of its value against the US dollar since the coup. (*7)Foreign exchange shortages persist due to the military's economic mismanagement. According to this management, the parallel market appears again, and the gap between the parallel market rate and the official reference rate grew larger (to around 60-70 percent), with persistent shortages of US dollars at below market rates. The Myanmar kyat has been continuously depreciating rapidly, exceeding 3,500 kyats per US dollar in the over-the-counter market as of early 2024, with further devaluation of the official exchange rate expected throughout 2023-2024 amidst high inflation and economic instability in the country.

4. Collapse in FDI and Trade: Western sanctions and the withdrawal of major international investors have severely impacted FDI inflows. Myanmar's trade has been disrupted by import restrictions, frequent power outages, and the conflict. Moreover, the disruption of economic activity, loss of investor confidence, trade sanctions and boycotts, currency depreciation and inflation, and the destabilization of the banking and finance sector are causing collapse in FDI and Trade.

5. Rising Poverty and Food Insecurity: Existing inequalities have been exacerbated, with poorer and conflict-affected areas suffering more. Around 48% of farming households worried about not having enough food in 2023, up from 26% the previous year. The current conditions of economic disruption, rising prices, agricultural production challenges, and the lack of an effective social protection system to support the most vulnerable populations have been dramatically pushed into poverty and food insecurity.

Social impact 

The military coup also devastated social impacts, leading to widespread insecurity, violence, human rights abuses, brain drain, and loss of human resources. The key social consequences are:

1. Safety and Insecurity: The junta has violently cracked down on pro-democracy protests, killing at least 8,000 civilians, including 578 children, as of March 2024. Over 2.7 million people have been displaced within Myanmar due to the conflict, with around 60,000 civilian properties destroyed. The military has deliberately targeted healthcare workers, with attacks on medical facilities and the arrest and detention of medical personnel who participated in the civil disobedience movement. Humanitarian organizations face significant challenges in accessing conflict-affected areas and providing aid to displaced populations.

2. Corruption and Lawlessness: The military's economic mismanagement and opaque policies have increased rent-seeking behavior and corruption. Rule of law has deteriorated, with arbitrary arrests, torture of detainees, and unfair trials by the junta becoming commonplace.

3. Brain Drain and Loss of Human Resources: There has been an exodus of skilled workers and professionals fleeing the violence and instability and thousands of civilians, including children, have been killed by the military's brutal crackdown on dissent causes huge loss of human resources of the country. Mover, public spending on education has plummeted, disrupting learning for an entire generation.

4. Humanitarian Crisis: Frequent airstrikes and artillery barrages by the military have caused civilian casualties and destruction. Food insecurity is worsening, with 48% of farming households worried about not having enough food and existing inequalities in household welfare have been exacerbated. The junta has blocked humanitarian aid access to many displaced populations across the country.

In summary, the military's brutal crackdown, economic mismanagement, and disregard for human rights have inflicted immense social damage, eroding Myanmar's human capital, escalating armed conflict, and creating a severe humanitarian emergency across the country. Therefore, longer-term growth prospects have been curtailed by reversals of economic reforms, disruptions to human capital development, skilled worker outmigration, and a sharp decline in foreign investment and deficit in trade. In addition, Myanmar's development gains have been eroded by compounding political, security and economic crises, leaving the country facing major humanitarian, economic and human capital challenges. To be highlight again, Myanmar's future pivots on a transition to a federal democracy and an entirely end to ferocious military rule.

Why and how the world and powerful democratic countries should help Myanmar people in fighting for federal democracy and human right of all citizen?

The insults of junta to Myanmar citizens who fighting for human right and democracy, is same as insults the world democracy and sovereignty. Therefore, the international community and powerful democratic countries such as U.S, U.K, EU, Japan, etc. should not ignore the crisis in Myanmar, as the junta poses a grave threat to human rights, regional stability, and the global rules-based order. However, the international community has been ineffective in holding the military accountable and restoring democracy. Calls for the junta to release political prisoners, allow humanitarian access, and engage in inclusive dialogue have been ignored. The Human Rights Council and powerful democracy countries should support the Myanmar people's in expressed their democratic will and aspirations. Effective support and call for strengthened international recognition of, and engagement with, the National Unity Government, National Unity Consultative Council, Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations, and civil society, including on urgent delivery of humanitarian assistance are needed.

Moreover, impose targeted sanctions on the junta leadership and military-owned conglomerates to cut off their access to foreign revenues and arms, provide coordinated international pressure and support for the pro-democracy movement, including through diplomatic channels and humanitarian assistance are essential. In addition, actively work to hold the military accountable for its human rights abuses and support the restoration of democracy and federal governance in Myanmar and then further targeted sanctions and cutting off the military's access to arms, jet fuel and foreign currency are needed. Therefore, the international organizations and powerful democratic countries should have decisive actions from their side concerning the factors mentioned above to support the people of Myanmar in their struggle for freedom and justice.

The political and social instability and insecurity and economic deterioration also have significant impact on internal and external migration from their own country, Myanmar. The next article will express the impacts of military coup of 2021 on migration and where and how increasing in migration and how people panic and desperation especially among the youth, and how that lead many to urgently seek ways to flee the country.




1. 強制的な徴兵:2024年2月、軍事政権は「2010年人民兵役法」を施行した。18~35歳の男性と18~27歳の女性を強制的に徴兵するものだ。軍事政権は、兵力の喪失や離反により減少した兵を補充するため、2024年4月から毎月5,000人の兵士を徴兵することを目指している。(4月には男性のみが徴兵された)この制度によってミャンマーの若者の間では恐怖が広がった。そして、彼らが余儀なく国外に行くことや家族から離れることの大きな理由の一つになっている。

2. 無差別空爆の激化:軍はミャンマー全土の民間地域、村、避難民キャンプ、学校、その他の民間インフラに対して多数の無差別空爆を実施している。最も致命的な攻撃の一つは2023年4月、ザガイン地域での空爆だ。民主派の行政事務所の開所式典会場を攻撃し、少なくとも168人の民間人が死亡した。さらに、2024年3月には軍事政権がビリン郡区の少数民族武装組織カレン民族同盟(KNU)地区の学校を空爆した。最近では、数回無差別空爆を行い、ミャワディ州、ダマサ州などカレン州とモン州の民間人を攻撃した。 KNU、少数民族武装勢力アラカン軍、地元PDF(国民防衛隊)は軍事政権との戦闘を激化させている。

3. エスカレートする残忍な戦術:軍事政権は、ミャンマー全土で民間人の虐殺、焼き討ち、斬首、恣意的殺害などの残忍な戦術をエスカレートさせている。オープンソース資料から紛争データを集約している武力紛争地域事件データプロジェクト(ACLED)によると、2021年に軍によるクーデター未遂事件が発生して以降、ミャンマーでは少なくとも5万人が殺害され、その中には約8,000人の民間人が含まれているという。さらに、軍事政権軍による200件以上の虐殺には、少なくとも578人の子供が含まれている。斬首事件は権利団体によって記録されている。軍は反対派の弾圧で民間人を殺害し、政治犯を理由に2万6560人以上を逮捕した。政治犯支援協会(AAPP)の推計では、2024年4月現在も2万人近くが拘束されている。クーデター以降で、100人以上の女性を含む3000人近くが軍の拘留中に死亡した。

4. 人道援助の阻止:軍は、紛争地域の避難民に対する人道援助のアクセスを阻止し続けている。 2024年初頭の時点で、紛争の激化と軍による人道支援の封鎖により、ミャンマー国内では270万人以上が避難民となっており、約1,860万人が援助を必要としている。





1. GDPの縮小: ミャンマーのGDPは、クーデターとその後の紛争により、2021年に18%という驚異的な縮小を記録した。世界銀行は、ミャンマーのGDPがクーデター前の水準に達する時期について、2027年から2028年になる可能性は低く、経済に「永久の傷跡」が残ると推定している。さらに、世界銀行の報告書(2023年12月)によると、2024年3月までの1年間の経済成長率はわずか1%にとどまると予想されており、農業、製造業、貿易など主要セクター全体で「広範な減速」が見込まれているとしている。

2. インフレと失業:クーデターの余波でインフレが急速に進み、消費者物価指数(CPI)は2023年6月までの1年間で28.6%上昇した。CPIは食料品の高騰により2022年12月に記録されたピークの35%からわずかに鈍化しただけだった。2024年4月になっても、食品価格は2桁の高騰を続けている。さらに、 2024年初頭の時点で、ミャンマーの生産年齢人口の40%近くが失業。世帯のほぼ半数が過去1年間で収入が減少したと報告している。

3. 通貨安:クーデター以降、ミャンマーチャットは対米ドルで約30%の価値を失った。軍の経済管理ミスにより、外貨不足が続いている。再び並行市場(fix)が出現し、並行市場レートと公式基準レートとの乖離が拡大し(約60~70%)、市場レートを下回るドル不足が継続する。ミャンマーチャットは継続的に下落しており、2024年初頭の時点で店頭市場では1ドルあたり3,500チャットを超えている。国内の高インフレと経済不安定の中、公式為替レートのさらなる切り下げが予想されている。

4. 海外直接投資(FDI) と貿易の崩壊:西側諸国の制裁と主要な国際投資家の撤退は、FDI の流入に深刻な影響を与えている。ミャンマーの貿易は、輸入制限、頻繁な停電、紛争によって混乱している。さらに、経済活動の混乱、投資家の信頼喪失、貿易制裁とボイコット、通貨安とインフレ、銀行と金融セクターの不安定化が、FDIと貿易の崩壊を引き起こしている。

5. 貧困と食料不安の増大: 既存の不平等は悪化し、より貧しい地域や紛争の影響を受けた地域はさらに苦しんでいる。農家の約48%が2023年に十分な食料がないことを懸念しており、前年の26%から増加した。経済の混乱、価格の上昇、農業生産の課題、最も弱い立場にある人々を支援する効果的な社会的保障制度の欠如などにより、貧困と食料不安を引き起こしている。



1. 安全と不安:軍事政権は民主化運動を暴力的に弾圧し、2024年3月の時点で子供578人を含む少なくとも8,000人の民間人を殺害した。紛争によりミャンマー国内では270万人以上が避難し、約6万の家や土地などの財産を失った。軍は医療施設を攻撃したり、市民的不服従運動に参加した医療関係者を逮捕・拘束したりするなど、医療従事者を意図的に標的にしている。

2. 汚職と不法行為: 軍の経済運営の誤りと不透明な政策により、地代を求める行為と汚職が増加している。法の支配は悪化し、軍事政権による恣意的な逮捕、拘束者の拷問、不当な裁判が常態化している。

3. 頭脳流出と人的資源の喪失:暴力と不安定性から逃れる熟練した労働者や専門家が海外に流出している。さらに、反対派に対する軍の残忍な弾圧によって子供を含む数千人の民間人が殺害され、国の人的資源に多大な損失を引き起こしている。また、教育に対する公的支出が減り、全世代の学習に混乱が生じている。

4. 人道危機:軍による度重なる空爆や砲撃により、民間人の死傷者だけでなく、建物が破壊されている。食料不安は悪化しており、農家の48%が十分な食料がないことを心配している。世帯福祉における既存の不平等はさらに悪化している。軍事政権は、全国の多くの避難民に対する人道援助へのアクセスを阻止している。



民主主義と人権のために戦うミャンマー国民に対する軍事政権の侮辱は、世界の民主主義と主権を侮辱するのと同じだ。したがって、国際社会と米国、英国、EU、日本などの強力な民主主義諸国は、ミャンマーの危機を無視すべきではない。 しかし、国際社会は軍の責任を追及し、民主主義を回復することに無力だ。軍事政権に対し、政治犯の釈放、人道的アクセスの許可、包括的な対話への参加を求める声は無視されている。人権理事会と強力な民主主義諸国は、ミャンマー国民が民主主義の意志と願望を表明することを支援すべきである。人道支援の緊急提供を含め、国民統一政府、国民統一協議評議会、民族革命組織、市民社会に対する国際的な認識と関与の強化を求める効果的な支援と呼びかけが必要である。



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